The Tories and the SNP are more similar than they realise

“Stands Scotland where it did?” was Shakespeare’s famous question. Well, according to the most recent IPSOS Mori poll on independence, it certainly does not. That poll recorded the highest

ever support for independence — 58 per cent are in favour, while 42 per cent are against. This poll doesn’t stand alone. While it may be an outlier, it is one of a series of polls showing a

shift to a majority in Scotland in favour of breaking up the UK.

Scottish sentiment is being driven by the trifecta of Brexit, Boris and Covid. Taking those in order, Brexit is certainly the trigger. Anyone who was present at the massive Remain rallies

last year will have seen the emergence of a new identity within British politics — a European one. If the union flag was claimed by Brexiteers, the European Union (EU) flag was adopted by

Remainers. It was everywhere hung in windows, draped over the shoulders of marchers, and even painted on the faces of young and old.

This was the opposite of Little England nationalism. It seemed to have been swept away by the Tory landslide and Sir Keir Starmer’s acceptance of Brexit. But in Scotland it created a new

group of swing voters — centre left Remainers who support independence as a route back to EU citizenship. There is something profoundly counter-intuitive about progressives seeking to leave

a redistributive social and economic union to join Margaret Thatcher’s creation — the EU single market — but the mood is real.

The second factor is Boris Johnson. Rather grandiosely, when he became Prime Minister, Johnson also made himself Minister for the Union. This immediately fell foul of the iron law of

credibility, as they say “don’t tell me you’re funny, make me laugh.” There is no doubt that had Johnson been able to run the government he wanted, the PM would have been able to love bomb —

or at least cash bomb — Scotland. He is no slash and burn Thatcherite but an interventionist Tory who, to adapt Michael Heseltine’s phrase, would have spent money on infrastructure before

breakfast, before lunch, before tea, and before dinner.

Money would have flooded across the border. But instead he had to handle Brexit, a hard sell in Scotland, where people voted Remain by 62-38. The PM’s strongest card is the return of control

of Scotland’s fisheries from Brussels. But the government’s position on this, and in other areas like state aid, have been overwhelmed by No Deal brinksmanship and the issue of the Irish

border.

Thirdly, since March this year, Covid has been the only item on the domestic agenda, both in terms of the health of the country and the health of the economy. Coronavirus has been a stress

test for governments, and Britain has the second worst death rate in western Europe. The Johnson government has rarely looked competent, let alone ahead of the challenges. The confused

messaging and impression that there was one rule for government advisers and one for the rest of the country has made the government look more concerned with balancing tensions within the

Conservative party than doing the right thing at the right time. In contrast, Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP government have looked in charge. Despite bravado claims in the summer of

eliminating Covid completely, Scotland has done nearly as badly as England, with the third worst death toll in western Europe. But politics is a contrast game and Sturgeon looks good

compared to Johnson

There is a savage irony in this apparent surge in support for independence. For if there’s one UK institution that has passed the pandemic test with flying colours, it is devolution.

Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales have their own governments running their own devolved health services, with the financial firepower of the UK state behind them, financing furlough pay,

VAT cuts, increased welfare payments, and the other measures to support workers, businesses and the economy. Just imagine if Scotland were independent on the terms Alex Salmond and Nicola

Sturgeon offered in 2014. It would be a “sterlingised” economy, which means it would be using the pound but without a currency union or its own central bank. It would be unable to create

debt on anything like the scale the pandemic response has required.

Instead, the global wave of populism that drove Brexit and swept President Trump to power has washed up in Scotland. Looking at the Johnson government, the pandemic seemingly without end,

and facing a recession and mass unemployment along the lines of the early 1980s, Scottish voters seem to be saying, “It couldn’t be worse if we threw it all up in the air and started again.”

But, as any rational person faced with the emotional appeal of populism knows, it could be so much worse. Though the SNP feel they are on the brink of independence, they cannot answer

simple questions like: what will Scotland’s currency be; and what are the costs of the transition?

Nor can they explain how the higher public spending they want will be made easier by losing the fiscal transfer that underpins the UK welfare state. The most recent analysis by the Scottish

Government, covering the financial year 2019-2020, shows that £15bn more was spent on public services than was raised in taxation. That is around 10 per cent of Scottish GDP and shows the

scale of what Scotland would lose from public services. It is also the most immediately tangible cost of independence. It is also an explanation of why, in modern times, no country with an

advanced economy and a welfare state has separated. (Ireland left the UK nearly 30 years before the NHS was set up.)

As they face each other, both the UK Tory government and the Scottish SNP one are very similar. English nationalists face Scottish nationalists. Both have poor records of preventing Covid

deaths, particularly in care homes. Both committed to campaigning, not governing. Both use public money and public appointments to consolidate political support. Both believe that leaving an

economic union can be frictionless and cost-free and that independence brings essential, yet intangible, benefits.

Brexit or Scexit? Both are deeply damaging to the country making its exit. The UK is worth defending because of the redistributive engine at its heart that powers its welfare state. But the

sad fact is that neither nationalist government — north or south of the border — values that very British form of social democracy.

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