Tropical teleconnection impacts on Antarctic climate changes

Over the modern satellite era, substantial climatic changes have been observed in the Antarctic, including atmospheric and oceanic warming, ice sheet thinning and a general Antarctic-wide

expansion of sea ice, followed by a more recent rapid loss. Although these changes, featuring strong zonal asymmetry, are partially influenced by increasing greenhouse gas emissions and

stratospheric ozone depletion, tropical–polar teleconnections are believed to have a role through Rossby wave dynamics. In this Review, we synthesize understanding of tropical

teleconnections to the Southern Hemisphere extratropics arising from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, focusing on the

mechanisms and long-term climatic impacts. These teleconnections have contributed to observed Antarctic and Southern Ocean changes, including regional rapid surface warming, pre-2015 sea

ice expansion and its sudden reduction thereafter, changes in ocean heat content and accelerated thinning of most of the Antarctic ice sheet. However, due to limited observations and

inherent model biases, uncertainties remain in understanding and assessing the importance of these teleconnections versus those arising from greenhouse gases, ozone recovery and internal

variability. Sustained pan-Antarctic efforts towards long-term observations, and more realistic dynamics and parameterizations in high-resolution climate models, offer opportunities to

reduce these uncertainties.

This work is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFA0605700). X.Li is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China

(2019YFC1509100), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (no. 41676190 and no. 41825012), and the Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration (CXPT2020015). G.A.M. was supported by

the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of Earth and Environmental System Modeling in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division of the U.S. Department of

Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1947282 and by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility

sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Cooperative Agreement no. 1852977. X.Y. is supported by the LDEO endowment for this work. M.R. is supported by the National Science

Foundation, Office of Polar Programs (grant no. NSF-OPP-1745089). D.M.H. is supported by the Center for Global Sea Level Change (CSLC) of NYU Abu Dhabi Research Institute (G1204) in the UAE

and NSF PLR-1739003. Q.D. is supported by Climate Variability & Predictability (NA18OAR4310424) as part of NOAA’s Climate Program Office. R.L.F. was supported by the National Science

Foundation under grant no. U.S. NSF PLR-1744998. B.R.M. was supported, in part, by a Stanback Postdoctoral Fellowship. D.H.B. was supported by the U.S. NSF award OPP-1823135. S.P.X. was

supported by the National Science Foundation (AGS-2105654, AGS-1934392 and AGS-1637450). S.T.G. was supported by the U.S. NSF awards PLR-1425989 and OPP-1936222, and by the U.S. Department

of Energy (DOE) (award DE-SC0020073). M.A.L. is supported by the Office of Polar Programs, National Science Foundation grant (no. 1924730). X.Chen is supported by the National Key Research

and Development Program of China (2019YFC1509100) and the National Science Foundation of China (no. 41825012). S.E.S. was supported by the National Science Foundation under grant no. U.S.

NSF PLR-1440435. M.M.H. was supported by the National Science Foundation under grant no. U.S. NSF OPP-1724748. S.F.P. is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science,

Biological and Environmental Research programme. Z.W. is supported by China National Natural Science Foundation (NSFC) project nos. 41941007 and 41876220. E.P.G. is supported by the NSF

grant AGS-1852727. H.G. is a research director within the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique-FNRS. C.Y. is supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) (grant

NRF-2019R1C1C1003161).

Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China

Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China

Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia

Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou, China

Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA

Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA

Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, NY, USA

Center for Global Sea Level Change, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE

Department of Geography and Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA

Byrd Polar & Climate Research Center and Atmospheric Sciences Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA

British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, UK

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA

Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, USA

Department of Physical Sciences, Madison Area Technical College, Madison, WI, USA

School of Geospatial Engineering and Science, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China

Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China

Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, China

Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain), Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

Department of Climate and Energy Systems Engineering, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea

Institute of Tibetan Plateau & Polar Meteorology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China

Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China

College of Resources and Environment, University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, China

X.Li, W.C., G.A.M., D.C., X.Y., M.R., D.M.H., Q.D., R.L.F., B.R.M., G.W., S.F.P., C.X., B.W., X.Chen and P.R.H. wrote specific sections or subsections, and provided figures for the Review.

All authors contributed to the manuscript preparation, interpretation, discussion and writing.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment thanks the anonymous reviewers for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

(SAM). The leading mode of extratropical Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, characterized by pressure variability between the mid and high southern latitudes, influencing the

strength and position of the mid-latitude jet.

Climatic forcings linked to anthropogenic factors, typically, increased greenhouse gas concentrations associated with fossil fuel burning, sulfate aerosols produced as an industrial

by-product, stratospheric ozone depletion and human-induced changes in land surface properties.

(ASL). A climatological low-pressure centre located over the southern end of the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of West Antarctica, that exhibits substantial variability in strength,

influencing the climate of West Antarctica and the adjacent oceanic environment.

(ENSO). An irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean on interannual timescales; the warming phase, El Niño, is characterized by

anomalous warm sea surface temperature over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, together with high and low surface pressure in the tropical western and eastern Pacific, respectively, and

the cooling phase, La Niña, with generally opposite conditions.

A series of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices with a typical spatial scale of a thousand kilometres, superimposed on the uniform west-to-east flow, making up a succession of wave packages

occurring at periodic intervals.

Large-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns, propagating eastward around the Southern Ocean with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, on interannual and sub-decadal timescales. Features can

be detected in sea level pressure, sea surface height, sea surface temperature and atmospheric/oceanic circulation.

(IPO). A climate mode describing changes in Pacific sea surface temperature on 20–30-year timescales; positive phases are characterized by an anomalous warming over the tropical eastern

Pacific and cooling patterns over the extratropical–mid-latitude western Pacific.

(AMO). A climate mode that affects the sea surface temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean on multidecadal timescales, with an estimated period of ~60–70 years, and an amplitude of the

spatial mean temperature up to 0.5°C.

Vertical–meridional overturning atmospheric circulation over the low-latitude troposphere, characterized by rising motion near the equator, with air flowing poleward at the upper troposphere

and descending over the subtropics.

A belt of strong upper-troposphere westerly winds in the subtropics, affecting precipitation and temperatures over the tropics and mid-latitudes.

A certain layer of atmosphere, usually acted upon by the mean jet, in which the wave is trapped due to refraction, just as an electromagnetic wave propagates in a metal waveguide.

The balance between vertical wind shear and horizontal gradients of virtual temperature in the atmosphere.

Vertical–zonal overturning atmospheric circulation over the tropical belt; the dominant Pacific Walker cell is characterized by easterly winds at the lower troposphere, westerly winds at the

upper troposphere, rising motion over the western Pacific and descending motion over the eastern Pacific.

(SPCZ). A band of low-level convergence, cloudiness and precipitation extending from the Western Pacific Warm Pool at the Maritime Continent south-eastwards of the French Polynesia and as

far as the Cook Islands (160°W, 20°S).

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