The Liberals and Conservatives are neck and neck in Canada - every vote counts

The bloom has come off Justin Trudeau’s rose as Canadians gear up for the federal election, which will take place on Monday, October 21. The Liberal Party leader’s blackface antics from

three decades ago have made sure of that. It’s one of the reasons he is fighting for his political life.

No matter, because at this point, the election is difficult to call. It’s a dead heat between the two main parties, Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives and Trudeau’s Liberals, both polling below

33 per cent, with the Liberals slightly leading. Jagmeet Singh’s left-leaning New Democrat Party (NDP) has picked up steam. Neither main political party is predicted to win outright, despite

former President Barak Obama putting his star power behind Trudeau. While rare in Canada, a coalition is becoming more likely.

The Liberals lead in Ontario, and the Conservatives are ahead in western Canada. The NDP are in second place in the west. The nationalist Bloc Quebecois is narrowly behind the Liberals in

Quebec, and the Green Party has support in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, according to the CBC poll tracker.

In terms of the runners, Trudeau at 46 is no longer the youthful optimist he was when elected prime minister in 2015. For the Conservatives, Scheer, a 39-year-old father of five, is

anti-abortion although he has said if he is in power he won’t reopen the debate. He’s also pro-gun. Scheer doesn’t believe in the carbon tax, even though a consortium of Canadian economists

has said it “is the most effective way to reduce emissions,” according to an interview in Chatelaine magazine. On the left, forty-year-old Singh took over the NDP in 2017, and since then it

has risen from the dead. He has ruled out working with the Conservatives.

So, it’s all about strategic voting. Trudeau has framed the election as a contest between the Liberals and the Conservatives and said the election is between “cost-cutting Conservatives or a

progressive Liberal government”. Singh joked that he hoped Trudeau was “encouraging people to vote for me because that’s the real progressive alternative”. Its uncharacteristic nastiness

has characterised the federal election campaign. Even though Canada is supposed to be a happy place, people are angry.

Two other parties have also made headway. The Green Party, led by Elizabeth May, is tackling climate change, with global warming emerging as a key issue, after a bleak decade for the party.

Canadians have backed Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg’s message. This resonates with May’s climate plan, called “Mission Possible”. She wants Canada to set an example for the world

by meeting the IPCC targets by 2030.

The resurgent Bloc Quebecois, led by Yves-Francois Blanchet, is primarily devoted to Quebec nationalism. Either the Bloc or the NDP could find itself holding the balance of power in a

minority government. The Bloc’s real strategy is to stir the pot to encourage Alberta separation so that it would make it easier for Quebec to pursue the same. The Western provinces,

Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and British Columbia, feel they don’t have a voice in Ottawa, the capital. If you want an escape from Brexit, don’t go West. “Wexit’ may be tempting for some,

but it’s not about to be a reality. As popularism has emerged in the rest of the world, tolerant Canada has not escaped the rise of far-right parties, either.

The critical election issues for Canadians are healthcare, climate change, the cost of living, taxes, the economy. Already, 4.7 million Canadians have posted their vote, which is up by 29

per cent since 2015 when 3.7 million cast their advance ballot.

It is Quebec, the Greater Toronto Area, and the Lower Mainland British Columbia which will decide Monday’s results. The election that has lacked ‘oomph’ until now is heating up in the

countdown to the 43rd Canadian Parliament

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