Tears before bedtime: can Boris Johnson restore discipline to the Tory Party?

Party discipline is like virginity – once it’s gone there is no restoring it. The Prime Minister knows this and is scrambling to head off a rebellion from up to 70 of his own MPs over the

introduction of a new tier system on Tuesday to control the scourge of Covid-19. Once backbenchers get a taste for voting against the line they will be inclined to continue to do so. For a

government that was returned with an 80-seat-majority less than a year ago it does not bode well.

Things are already difficult enough for the whips with so many parliamentarians working from home. It is much harder to keep colleagues in check when you cannot have a friendly or unfriendly

chat, as the case may be, in the Commons’ tea room. There have always been independent-minded MPs, who place principle ahead of career advancement. I applaud them as they play an important

role in speaking truth to power, free of the shackles of the obsequiousness that renders many of their colleagues hamstrung. However, for a government to function effectively it can only

afford the awkward squad to comprise a handful of members. 

However, the Covid Recovery Group led by Mark Harper, a former Chief Whip, and Steve Baker, has over 50 MPs. It has called for a cost/benefit analysis by area to be provided which takes

account of the devastating economic impact of the ongoing restrictions. The Office for Budget Responsibility confirmed last week that the economy has shrunk by 11.3 per cent this year and

that unemployment is set to rise to 7.5 per cent in the coming months. 

That loyalists such as Damian Green, the MP for Ashford, are also planning to vote against the Government, highlights the extent of the problem. He has pointed out that prior to the latest

lockdown, his constituency was in Tier One and as of this week will go backwards by being placed into Tier Three, the most punitive. The imposition of county-wide restrictions, as planned,

is considered to be a blunt instrument by many who would prefer to see curbs at borough or district council level.

The Prime Minister has indicated that the tier levels will be reviewed every two weeks and that the system will only remain in place until early February when it will be sent back to

parliament for a further vote. But as one Tory MP put it, “if ministers such as Nadhim Zahawi and Jesse Norman are criticising the rollout you know you are in trouble”.

Some have also railed against the claim from Michael Gove that a failure to impose the new system could result in the NHS being overwhelmed. John Redwood has questioned why the government is

not channelling all Covid-19 cases to the seven largely mothballed Nightingale hospitals which would free up regular NHS capacity to deal with everything else.

Many Tories who would typically be happy to go out to defend the party line, have grown increasingly weary of government U-turns, notably over free school meals and the awarding of school

grades. Therefore, they are wary of putting their head above the parapet only to have the ladder pulled from beneath them.

The Prime Minister may win the vote this week if Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, instructs his party to sit on its hands, but it is hardly a good look for a government to allow the

opposition to determine its fate. This matters, as there are other important issues coming down the track. The first of these is tax rises, which many Conservative MPs viscerally detest. Any

move to break manifesto commitments on income tax, VAT, national insurance and the pensions triple lock are likely to encounter ferocious opposition.

The second, is major reform of the planning system, which has spooked Tory MPs in rural constituencies who worry that the government’s commitment to get 300,000 houses built per annum will

result in concreting over the countryside. The “mutant algorithm” that will decide where these houses are to be located has been vociferously attacked and is currently being reviewed by

Robert Jenrick, whose remit it falls within. 

The lack of a senior figure within No.10, that Conservative MPs can meaningfully engage with, is part of the problem. The departure of his pugnacious Chief of Staff, Dominic Cummings, whose

contempt for MPs was not even thinly veiled, provided Johnson with an opportunity to address this. But he has chosen to appoint Dan Rosenfield, a former career civil servant with no

footprint within the Conservative Party. 

Rosenfield, a Whitehall insider who worked for two Chancellors, Alistair Darling and George Osborne, before a sojourn in the City and a stint at a strategic advisory firm, has been brought

in to ensure that the existing bureaucratic machinery delivers the government’s agenda. He will not provide a receptacle for frustrated backbenchers to vent. That role could potentially be

performed by Lord Lister, the Prime Minister’s consigliere, but is it questionable how effective he has been at it to date. It is also a difficult job for anyone to fulfil if MPs feel that

the man at the top is himself not making the right decisions.

That a number of caucuses have sprung up within the party in recent months should serve as a warning. The China Research group successfully campaigned to prevent Huawei having a continued

role in the UK’s critical infrastructure and the Northern Research Group led by, Jake Berry MP, is busily championing the levelling-up agenda. They know that there is strength in numbers and

that Boris Johnson is malleable.

As one would expect from a career journalist, the Prime Minister has a fluent writing style and a colourful turn of phrase. But the resort to wartime Churchillian rhetoric referencing

“sunlit upland pastures” and not tripping over “barbed wire” will prove insufficient. He must consult more carefully before making key decisions and having chosen a course, stick to it. A

failure to do so will continue to erode his personal credibility and that of his government. 

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