Liz Truss, Lloyd Austin and the new doctrine of containment

Liz Truss is proving to be the most impressive Foreign Secretary for a long time — certainly since William Hague. In the seven months since she took office, in the aftermath of the

withdrawal from Afghanistan, Britain’s standing in the world has risen markedly. On Ukraine, it was she — together with Ben Wallace and, of course, Boris Johnson — who set the pace. Today,

in one of her most important speeches so far, she will deliver a warning that Putin’s war must be a “catalyst”, the beginning, not the end, of a new attitude to global security: “Geopolitics

is back.”

For the Foreign Secretary, it is imperative to step up the pressure on Russia, not only to save Ukraine, but to deter China and other potential aggressors. If Putin succeeds, “there will be

untold further misery across Europe and terrible consequences across the globe. We will never feel safe again. So we must be prepared for the long haul and double down on our support for

Ukraine.”

Though she does not say so, her speech is intended to send a message to some of our NATO allies. Though she does not say so, the lesson of Afghanistan is that the West cannot afford to

appear weak. The way that global security works “has failed Ukraine” and a “new approach” is needed.

For Ms Truss, it is axiomatic that European states should not be funding the Russian war effort and that sanctions must be extended to include all trade: “That includes cutting off oil and

gas imports [from Russia] once and for all.” She wants no artificial limits on the types of arms requested by Ukraine, including tanks and aircraft, and a steady increase in the quantities

supplied. And she is undaunted by threats from the Kremlin that such supplies will be targeted by its forces or that NATO is now engaged “in essence” in a “proxy war” with Russia.

In the longer term, the Foreign Secretary demands a permanent increase in defence spending by all NATO member states. We must, she says, make up for “a generation of underinvestment, with 2

per cent of GDP a floor, not a ceiling”. The UK is one of just eight countries in the Atlantic alliance to meet that target: apart from the US and Greece, all the others have borders with or

are in the vicinity of Russia. The other 22 members spend less than 2 per cent of GDP, though France and Germany have promised to raise expenditure to that level. Liz Truss is on record as

saying that we should be prepared to spend up to 5 per cent of GDP on defence — a level not seen since the Cold War, even in the US. Global security does not come cheap.

This uncompromising message is indeed reminiscent of the Cold War. Indeed, Ms Truss even uses a term of art from that era: she speaks of “containing” Putin’s Russia. “Containment” was the

basis of the Truman Doctrine, inspired by the American diplomatic guru George Kennan in his famous “Long Telegram” from Moscow in 1946. This language is not what we are used to hearing from

the present Foreign Office and no doubt there are British diplomats who will feel uncomfortable with it. Certainly it is not the language of our closest European neighbours. President

Macron, for example, was much more cautious in his rhetoric about Russia during the recent French election campaign. No German Chancellor has talked about “containing” Russia for

generations.

There is another Western statesman now in office, however, for whom Liz Truss’s words will resonate. Lloyd Austin, the present US Secretary of Defense (pictured above), has emerged during

this phase of the Ukrainian crisis as not only the most hawkish but also the most thoughtful member of the Biden Administration. During his recent visit to Kyiv, together with the Secretary

of State Antony Blinken, Loyd Austin spelt out a fundamental shift in US policy.

Not only does Washington want to see Ukrainian sovereignty over its entire territory restored, but the threat from the east must be removed, the Defense Secretary declared. “We want to see

Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine,” he said. Moscow should “not have the capability to very quickly reproduce” the

equipment and troops that it has lost in the war so far. This amounts not only to an escalation of the US commitment to Ukraine, but a new strategic goal: the containment of Russian

aggression towards its neighbours. For the avoidance of doubt, Austin’s words were backed up by Blinken: “I think the Secretary said it very well.” The Biden Administration, like the Johnson

Government, is now committed to a policy of containment in all but name.

These two rising stars of American and British politics differ, of course, in many other ways. Though only 46, Liz Truss is one of the most experienced members of the Cabinet, having held

office at this rank continuously for eight years. Lloyd Austin is 68, but he had never held political office before he took over at the Pentagon 15 months ago. He is, however, a four star

general who held several senior military posts under Barack Obama, including US Central Command. Above all, he is the first Black Secretary of Defense — a milestone in American political

history.

Liz Truss, incidentally, is only the second woman to be British Foreign Secretary, following the brief and undistinguished tenure of Margaret Beckett in the Blair Government. She has made

little secret of her ambition to be the third female Prime Minister, nor of the fact that Margaret Thatcher is her role model.

Conspicuously loyal to Boris Johnson and consistently popular with Conservative Party members, Ms Truss would be strongly placed in any future leadership contest to unite the Left and Right

wings of the party. She is boldly libertarian in her principles, but a staunch traditionalist in the “culture wars”. She voted Remain in 2016 but has championed Brexit as International Trade

Secretary. Nobody could fairly accuse her of being a “Little Englander”, yet she is a quintessentially English, no-nonsense Tory.

If Lloyd Austin has ambitions to reach the White House, he has yet to declare them. Yet his quietly assured performance on the international stage during the war in Ukraine has impressed

people at home and abroad. His age would be no barrier in America: Joe Biden will be a more than a decade older — an octogenarian, indeed — by the time of the next presidential election in

2024. Austin has the gravitas, the stature (he is well over 6 feet tall) and the experience to be a formidable Commander-in-Chief. Whether he has the qualities required to run for the

presidency is another matter.

Two decades ago the late Colin Powell, who like Austin had held high military and civilian office, opted not to subject himself and his family to the ordeal of an election campaign. Many

felt subsequently that he was one of the best presidents America never had. Following Powell and Condoleeza Rice at the State Department, Obama opened the door to Americans of colour to hold

the highest office in the land. The Democrats have few attractive options for 2024, given that Kamala Harris has been a disappointing Vice President.

No doubt Lloyd Austin sees his tenure at the Pentagon as a fitting end to a distinguished career in public service. But he would not be the first military man to be drafted into the White

House to address the threat from Russia: Dwight D. Eisenhower was a hugely popular and successful President at the height of the Cold War. In the case of Austin, there is another danger that

might prompt him to run: the return of Donald Trump to the White House.

If in three years’ time we have a President Austin is joining forces with a Prime Minister Truss to contain the continuing threats from Russia, China and other authoritarian regimes, please

remember that you read it here first.

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