Is the vaccination programme in trouble? Here’s why we must not falter | thearticle

It was always going to happen. The great British vaccination programme has hit a rough patch. After reaching an astonishing peak of three-quarters of a million first jabs a day, that figure

has fallen to less than 50,000. In the United States, meanwhile, they are now vaccinating more than three million people daily and are on course to make all adults eligible within a

fortnight. A month ago, the UK was ahead of the US; now we are struggling to keep up. What has gone wrong? The Government blames the slowdown on a temporary shortage of Oxford-AstraZeneca

vaccine supplies from India, along with the need to catch up with second jabs. Both are true, but they are not the whole story.  When AstraZeneca warned last month that delivery of five

million doses would be delayed by Delhi’s decision to halt vaccine exports, the pharmaceutical was careful not to give a date when supplies would be resumed. We are still waiting for one.

Meanwhile, the top-up programme is administering four times as many second jabs as a month ago, with a seven-day average of 235,000. But this figure is just a third of the levels achieved

with the first jab. Vaccination centres are working hard to hit the target of twelve weeks between jabs, but the pace of the programme is clearly suffering from shortages of supply. More

worryingly, the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine has run into regulatory problems, due to concerns about a possible side-effect — low blood platelet counts — that a senior Italian scientist at the

European Medicines Agency has linked to blood clots in younger recipients. The incidence of this rare form of thrombosis is vanishingly small: after 18 million doses administered in the UK,

seven people have died of blood clots — fewer than one in two million. Official advice that the jab is safe has not changed. Even so, a trial with British children being conducted by the

Oxford team has been paused while the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency assesses the possible risk. The MHRA is reported to be considering restrictions on the vaccine in

the under-30 age group, though a causal mechanism has yet to be established and many scientists are sceptical that it will be.  Yet the fact that safety is even being discussed is bound to

deter many people from being inoculated at a time when Covid deaths in the UK have fallen to their lowest level since last September. It is no coincidence that the young, who are at least

risk from the coronavirus, are also most likely to resist vaccination. An ethical question has arisen: is it right to expect a young person, who is very unlikely to die of Covid, to accept

the risk, even an infinitesimally small one, of a lethal side-effect, for the sake of eliminating the pandemic and thereby saving the lives of older people? Professor Chris Whitty, the Chief

Medical Officer, concedes that the trade-off here may not be straightforward. Most of us instinctively resist a strictly utilitarian calculus of risk in any case. After all, the Hippocratic

oath remains valid for modern medicine: first do no harm. So what is to be done? The Government must, of course, be guided by the science, but the facts have not changed: it is imperative

to keep up the campaign to protect as many people as possible from a virus that on average kills about one in 150 of those who are infected. The Oxford vaccine is the workhorse of the

programme, not only in the UK but around the world. It would send out a disastrous global signal if the vaccine’s use were restricted to certain groups here in the West, especially as other

vaccines use similar methods. The MHRA has so far said that even if a causal link to blood clots were to be established, it would be sufficient to warn patients of the risk. So far 99.4 per

cent of those who received the first jab have returned for their second dose — a remarkable rate for any vaccination. Fortunately, the supply issue will be eased by new vaccines coming on

tap, beginning with the Moderna roll-out, which is due to begin this month. Later on, large supplies of the Johnson & Johnson single jab vaccine are on order. Vaccine nationalism maybe

receding as wrangles with the EU are resolved. The Continent still lags far behind the UK, having failed even to inoculate its over-80s and health workers by the end of March — a target met

here long ago. The failures of the EU programme have implications for the UK, especially as borders reopen and international travel resumes. We can only hope that the third wave of Covid

that has forced France and Italy to reimpose lockdowns will recede in time for the summer holiday season. Here the Government insists that it is still on target to offer first doses to all

over-50s by May and the whole adult population by the end of July. Once the programme gets back on track, it plans an average of 2.7 million jabs a week until the end of July, falling to two

million thereafter. Earlier estimates of up to four million weekly doses have been scaled back, but the aim is still to have virtually the whole population over 16 fully vaccinated in time

for the autumn, when colder weather could bring a resurgence of Covid in its wake. The big unknown is still the risk of mutation, which could necessitate a second winter programme of

modified vaccines to counter new variants. The modelling suggests that deaths from Covid could be brought down to levels comparable to more familiar coronaviruses such as influenza, as the

disease adapts to become less virulent but more permanent. The future is uncertain but the present need is not. At all costs, the vaccination programme must not be allowed to falter. As long

as take-up among the under-50s remains above 80 per cent, the country will remain on track to lift almost all restrictions in late June. The Prime Minister and his colleagues, reinforced by

the scientific community, must reiterate the message that mass immunisation remains imperative. In a world where most countries have yet to be offered vaccination, we should consider

ourselves fortunate. It has often been said that to be born British is to have won the lottery of life. This has never been truer than today. Getting the jab is not only a privilege — it is

also a patriotic duty. A MESSAGE FROM THEARTICLE _We are the only publication that’s committed to covering every angle. We have an important contribution to make, one that’s needed now more

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