How the fall of Boris and Nicola empowered Sir Keir

The annals of political history are often shaped by the leaders who have the vision and tenacity to build and forge a better future. What does it say about our current political environment

that the two most successful politicians of recent times, Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon, have been marred by an inability to build, overshadowed by a propensity to dismantle or tear down

existing structures.

Apart from admittedly massive events foisted upon him (Covid and Ukraine), Boris Johnson’s tenure as Prime Minister was marked by a persistent focus on Brexit, a divisive issue that

dominated his agenda. While his commitment to delivering Brexit and “taking back control” resonated with a significant portion of the electorate, the process of extricating the United

Kingdom from the European Union has been, to say the least, fraught. This all diverted resources and energy from other areas of the political and civil apparatus which desperately needed

attention. The present near collapse in many areas of government and the state bears testament to this.

Johnson’s reputation for being a charismatic campaigner did not translate into a strong track record of building consensus or unifying the country. His leadership has been plagued by

internal party divisions and challenges. This inability to build broad-based coalitions hindered his ability to drive transformative change or construct a cohesive vision for the future

after Brexit. Having got it done, Johnson showed no understanding of what the country should do next.

Similarly, Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership has been characterised by a singular focus on Scottish independence, at times overshadowing other critical issues that required attention. While her

commitment to the cause has resonated with a significant portion of the Scottish population, it diverted attention and resources from broader issues within Scotland. The relentless pursuit

of independence ironically limited her ability to construct a coherent vision for the Scottish nation – independent or not.

Sturgeon’s quest for independence has strained relationships with the UK government, further hindering her ability to build bridges and establish collaborative frameworks. The impasse

between the Scottish and UK governments has created a climate of division and uncertainty, making it near on impossible to foster an environment which any meaningful progress can be made.

Johnson’s relationship with Brussels was almost identical.

Johnson and Sturgeon are ultimately figures who fragment and polarise; because of this they could do nothing to build and progress. Johnson’s Conservative Party has grappled with internal

divisions, while Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party failed to face the challenge of balancing the diverse perspectives within its ranks. These fractures hinder the process of constructing a

shared vision and consensus-building. They are left pointing at “the other” as the root of all evil, be that Brussels or Westminster. This creates a cycle of stagnation at best, destruction

at worst.

It is therefore apt that both figures are sharing public falls from grace at a similar time. But it’s the here and now where the two ex-leaders diverge. Sturgeon is a busted flush with her

political career beyond repair.  Sir Keir Starmer and the Scottish Labour Party look set to happily mop up all her lost SNP votes, thanks to nothing other than just being there.

But could Boris’s next chapter be his most controversial yet? Johnson never managed to mould the Conservative Party into his image, in the way Sturgeon did with the SNP. Egged on by his more

fevered disciples it seems increasingly likely Johnson might try and create a new party, which he could control and manipulate at will. Whispers of this seismic shift have been around ever

since Johnson left No 10.

But if he did do this it would be the greatest act of Johnson hubris yet. The “Boris Party” would never carry him to power, as he would be completely unable to attract votes of the

moderates. All Johnson would do is to split the Right of British politics for a generation — a base act of toys out of pram chucking.

The main winner from the fall of Johnson and Sturgeon is Sir Keir Starmer. Without these two figures the Labour leader would never be able to command a workable majority in the House of

Commons: he has neither the vision nor personality. But thanks to the simultaneous fall of Nicola and Boris, a commanding majority now seems within his grasp.

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