From Manchester to Vienna, events are moving everywhere — but not in Westminster

A brief hiatus in the high drama of Westminster allows us to survey the scene elsewhere. For the moment, all eyes will be on Manchester, where Boris Johnson’s speech is due on Wednesday

morning, unless events in Parliament force him to return to London. It is not inconceivable that this speech could be his first and last as Tory leader. Only the coming days will tell

whether Opposition efforts to organise a vote of no confidence, or even to impeach the Prime Minister, will bear fruit. It seems unlikely that this fractious crew could get their act

together, but a constitutional coup to install a caretaker administration cannot be ruled out.

A few yards from the platform is the Free Trade Hall, where the real founder of modern Conservatism, Benjamin Disraeli, gave one of his most celebrated orations in 1872. Seven years ago Ed

Miliband, the then Labour leader, invoked this so-called “One Nation” speech, hoping to steal the Conservatives’ clothes. It is more than likely that Boris will do the same, in order to give

historical weight to his rebranding of the Tories as the party of the people. Disraeli never used the phrase “One Nation”, but his most celebrated words from that speech still resonate

today: “As I sat opposite the Treasury bench, the Ministers reminded me of one of those marine landscapes not very unusual on the coasts of South America. You behold a range of exhausted

volcanoes. Not a flame flickers on a single pallid crest.” Boris could still bring down the house — and even the House — if only he could command his great predecessor’s mastery of

invective. But he, too, has set his sights on wooing the workers. Disraeli created what was then a new phenomenon in politics: the working class Tory. The challenge for Johnson is to win

them back.

Those who wish to predict the fate of Brexit should turn their gaze even further away from London, however, to Vienna. The decisive election victory there of the embattled Austrian

Chancellor, Sebastian Kurtz, could prove to be a turning point in the life-and-death struggle of the European centre-Right parties with populist insurgents. In Germany, conservatives despair

of the shrinking middle-ground on which Angela Merkel threatens to leave them marooned when she steps down in two years. But Kurtz offers them a different role model. He is only too happy

to talk about national sovereignty and to address the border anxiety that afflicts voters there and indeed throughout Europe. Like many other centre-Right politicians on the Continent, Kurz

leads a movement that avoids the word “conservative”, preferring to call itself the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) — yet defines itself against the populists, the Freedom Party of Austria

(FPÖ). Kurz, who is still only 33, has demonstrated that the populists can be beaten, but only by addressing the people’s concerns about the waves of migration that have swept into mainland

Europe.

This slight but significant shift back towards a moderate nationalism shows that the parties that have hitherto provided the main impetus for European federalism are now questioning that

ultimate destination. For the Brexit negotiations now under way, that could indicate a softening of the EU’s hardline stance — if not in Brussels, then perhaps in Berlin.

As the fear of populism rose to the level of paranoia, so the determination to make an example of the British hardened. Even the breakup of the UK, by forcing Theresa May to accept the Irish

backstop, did not seem too harsh a penalty to impose pour encourager les autres. Now that Boris Johnson has emerged as the only hope of taming Nigel Farage, however, wiser counsels may

prevail in Europe. In a post-Brexit era, the important difference will be between those British conservatives who want to strike free trade deals with the EU, while sharing the values of

their younger Continental counterparts, and the English nationalists of the Brexit Party. Mrs Merkel won’t want to burn bridges with Boris, if only because his brand of politics is not so

very different from that of those who may have to succeed her in Germany, if the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is ever to rebuild the broad-based popular coalition bequeathed by Adenauer

and Kohl.

Back in Westminster, the antics of the “rebel alliance” and the Speaker have distracted MPs from lifting their horizons. But the old divisions that brought about the 2016 referendum result

now no longer look quite so intractable. Sajid Javid, the Chancellor, is at last promising to deliver the spending on infrastructure that neglected regions have long demanded. And a new,

improved withdrawal deal is tantalisingly close — if only Parliament would allow the Government to negotiate from strength. This week will show whether a breakthrough in talks might be

possible by mid-October, when the Benn Act (aka “surrender Bill”) kicks in. If the answer from Brussels is yes, then it is game on for a Hallowe’en Brexit. If not, the blame game will begin.

That will decide the next election.

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