Boris has levelled with us at last and Britain is braced for the battle ahead 

It is a blessed relief that Boris Johnson has finally taken the country that elected him into his trust. “I must level with the British public: many more families are going to lose loved

ones before their time.” Flanked by the Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, and the Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, the Prime Minister spelled out to a press conference the

Government’s strategy to defeat coronavirus.

What emerged was surprising to many and reassuring to few, but it was bold and it was carefully thought through. With the delaying measures now in place, experts expect the epidemic to peak

in June, but with a much flatter “sombrero” than might otherwise occur. Johnson rejected “draconian” restrictions as counter-productive, based on epidemiological modelling that aims to

create a “herd immunity” over the course of the outbreak. Premature attempts to suppress Covid-19 risk leaving the population vulnerable to a second outbreak next winter.

The NHS is preparing for the numbers diagnosed to increase rapidly in coming weeks, given that it is likely that already some 10,000 people are carrying the virus. Testing will be stepped up

from the 30,000 level reached so far. Above all, self-isolation is recommended for anyone who has a high temperature (defined as 37.8 degrees C) and/or a new and persistent cough. Those

aged 70 or more are advised not to go on cruises and to take other precautions; importantly, however, the advice does not include staying indoors.

The mass psychology of epidemics suggests that in a free society such as the UK, forcing entire sections of the population to quarantine themselves will fail. It is neither possible nor

desirable to impose such a lockdown at this stage. Crashing the economy is in any case hardly conducive to keeping the country calm and healthy.

The stock markets have played their depressingly familiar role of adding to an atmosphere of panic. The 30 per cent fall in the London markets since January is the steepest in any

three-month period since the South Sea Bubble burst in 1720. Do investors really expect the world to go to Hell? They are certainly giving it a push in that direction. But complaining about

the stock markets is as pointless as lamenting the cruel and unusual animal markets that gave rise to Covid-19 in the first place. We are where we are.

Boris Johnson is at last demonstrating the kind of leadership of which he is capable. He should give more public briefings such as Thursday’s and thereby show that he has nothing to hide.

But it is not always necessary to have the Prime Minister on stage. The Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, is an effective public performer and could do the job. Most importantly, we need to

see more of Sir Chris and Sir Patrick, so that the innumerable questions that torment us can be answered by the experts responsible.

There will, of course, be criticism and that is how it should be. After one failed Tory leadership candidate, Rory Stewart, complained that the Prime Minister was not closing down schools,

another of that salon des refusés has now taken aim at him. As a former Health and Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Hunt deserves to be taken seriously, but he too is essentially demanding that

Britain follow the far-Eastern model. 

Yet as the Prime Minister explained yesterday, closing schools solves one problem only to create another. Children sent home from school are often looked after by grandparents, who are among

the most vulnerable groups. There may come a time when isolating elderly relatives becomes necessary, though that is not yet indicated. Millions of children on the loose are just as likely

to spread the virus outside their classrooms as in them.

As for Taiwan and Thailand, the other countries cited by Hunt as preferable models, it is too soon to say whether he is correct that they have been “strikingly successful” in dealing with

coronovirus. Once the genie is out of the bottle, there is no way to put it back in again. Rather, we need to develop resistance and, in due course, a vaccine and effective treatments.

It is a cliché to say that this crisis is a test of leadership, but at least we now know how to judge that leadership. Boris Johnson came across as competent, eloquent and suitably

deferential towards the eminent boffins on either side of him. Heaven knows, we need to be able to trust this triumvirate. The penny has dropped that thousands of lives are at stake. Britain

is now braced for the battle ahead. This is no longer a phoney war. This is the real thing.

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