
Here's the most alarming market message: so-called safe havens aren't so safe
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I don't know if this is an SOS or an LOL message, but your so-called "safe haven" investments aren't so safe. Judging by the investments that are underperforming so far
this year, the supposedly safe-haven assets — the ones you counted on to keep your portfolio stable during periods just like the current one, when market volatility surges — are turning out
to be not so safe after all. One of hundreds of leftover Fallout Shelter signs in New York, signifying a protective space to sit out a nuclear attack. It dates back to the early 1960s, when
America was in a Cold War with Russia. Getty Images You could say that 2018 is still a young year and it's way too early to judge things, which is true, but the level of volatility in
both stocks and bonds during February is making this year feel like we've lived through two full years already, and I think what the markets are signaling is more likely to be a sea
change than a blip. Bonds, as measured by the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index ETF (), were down more than 2 percent year-to-date through the end of February. High-yield bonds, aka junk
bonds, as measured by iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) are down, too, though by a little less. The stock dive after President Trump's steel and aluminum tariff
announcement on Thursday didn't help. It was the worst first day of the month for the markets since January 2016. Dividend-paying stocks, as measured by the iShares Select Dividend ETF
(DVY), were down by more than 2 percent through the first two months of 2018. But compare that to the S&P 500, as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which was up almost 2
percent at the end of February, even amid the stock market volatility, and the Guggenheim S&P 500 Top 50 ETF (XLG), which was up by about 3.75 percent. Real estate, as measured by
iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR): closing in on correction territory, down more than 9 percent. Utilities, as measured by Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU), are off by near-7 percent. And
how about those consumer staples stocks that pay dividends? The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) is down by 6 percent. Big names in the sector are getting beaten up bad:
Procter & Gamble is down near-12 percent, and PepsiCo is down by nearly 8 percent. You get it. And OK, I get it, too. You're going to tell me that I'm just picking on interest
rate-sensitive sectors, and again that is true. But it highlights an important concept that conservative investors —especially boomers and seniors who've been chasing passive income the
last few years — need to understand before more potential carnage. And it runs counter to popular investor thinking. > When it comes to stocks — any and all stocks — and bonds with a
> time to maturity greater than a year, there are no true safe havens. > They don't exist. When it comes to stocks — any and all stocks — and bonds with a time to maturity greater
than a year, there are no true safe-havens. They don't exist. What does exist are the right economic and interest-rate circumstances that powered these formerly winning spaces, and the
truth is that those conditions lasted for a long time, just like the low volatility of the last few years. Just because a trend goes on for a long time doesn't mean we should plan on
it continuing forever. The number of big-name investors calling a bond bear market added hedge fund legend Paul Tudor Jones on Thursday, following similar calls from Bill Gross, Bill Miller
and Jeff Gundlach. Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan said on Thursday that the "bond market bubble" is starting to unwind. The bond bull market lasted _three decades_. Like that
popular financial disclaimer says — for good reason — past performance is no indication of future performance. WHAT THE CURRENT MIXED-UP MARKET ENVIRONMENT DOES FAVOR What does the current
market environment favor? One sector is financials, as measured by Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) and iShares U.S. Regional Banks ETF (IAT), which are up by approximately 5 percent
and 8 percent, respectively, this year. There are a few important lessons I'd like to share with investors about rising interest rates, which typically favor financial stocks. Higher
interest rates are not a death knell for stocks. There are an infinite amount of factors that drive stock prices. But one thing that a rising-rate scenario does do is change the pecking
order of winners and losers, regardless of how long a prior pecking order lasted. When the interest-rate regime changes, everything else changes. In other words, nothing that pays a good
yield is safe, and anything that's safe doesn't pay a good yield. More from Advisor Insight: Are muni bonds still a safe investment bet? The 'IRS" wants to arrest me. You
could be next. Investing in commodities as an inflation hedge Some stocks, like technology in general and FANG stocks in particular, are more about capacity than interest rates. During the
tech stock boom of the late '90s, the tech sector was driven largely by hardware and semiconductors — Cisco and Intel to name two. But when oversaturation in tech products came about,
earnings got crushed, leading to the tech wreck in 2000. Could social media, search and cloud computing become oversaturated in the future? Of course, but that's a risk all tech
investors have to live with. But investors obviously don't see that happening anytime soon, which is why the tech sector, as measured by Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK), was
able to transition from 2017 into 2018 and still remain an outperformer YTD, up almost 7 percent at the end of February. Just like that phrase cited above about past performance,
diversification is another lesson that many investors seemingly forget during bull markets. If one had an investment portfolio made up of all of the above safe-haven assets/sectors, one
might think that means one is diversified. Turns out that couldn't be further from the truth. Diversification just isn't as easy as it sounds. What you really had were a bunch of
holdings that were all correlated to the same set of circumstances — a prolonged period of low interest rates and investors piling into the same dividend and interest-paying securities.
I've seen this movie before. When interest rates rise, it's always the same group of conservative investors who were overreaching for yield who wind up getting burned. — _By Mitch
Goldberg, president of investment advisory firm ClientFirst Strategy _